Housing Market Shows Resilience as October Transactions Reach Eight-Month High

The housing market has demonstrated remarkable resilience through a period of considerable uncertainty, according to the latest figures from HMRC. October's property transaction data offers encouraging news for both buyers and sellers navigating what has been an unpredictable year, with implications that will resonate across communities throughout Warwickshire and Rugby.

The seasonally adjusted figures show that 98,450 residential property transactions took place across the UK in October 2025, representing a 2% increase from September and marking the strongest performance since March of this year. Whilst this figure sits 2% below the same period last year, the upward trajectory from the previous month suggests that confidence is gradually returning to the market. The non-seasonally adjusted data paints an even more positive picture, with 116,230 transactions recorded – 4% higher than October 2024 and 13% above September's figures.

For those considering moving home in our town and the surrounding villages, these statistics reflect what many estate agents have been observing on the ground: a market that has weathered the storm of Budget speculation and emerged with its foundations intact. The period leading up to October was characterised by caution, as many households delayed major decisions whilst awaiting clarity on potential property reforms in the Autumn Budget. Now that these changes have been confirmed, the market appears to be regaining its momentum as buyers and sellers who had been waiting on the sidelines feel more confident about proceeding with their plans.

Industry experts have been quick to highlight that beneath the headline figures lies a market driven by genuine need rather than speculation. Iain McKenzie, chief executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, emphasised that the transactions taking place are predominantly needs-based moves, families upsizing to accommodate growing households, empty nesters downsizing to more manageable properties, or individuals relocating for work or lifestyle reasons. This pattern is particularly relevant in the local area, where the mix of family homes, village properties, and modern developments caters to buyers at various life stages.

The increase in available properties coming to market compared with last year represents welcome news for prospective buyers. Greater choice means less competition for individual properties and helps to moderate price growth, creating a more balanced marketplace. For sellers, this environment requires realistic pricing and effective marketing, areas where local expertise and market knowledge become invaluable. Understanding the specific characteristics that appeal to buyers in Rugby and the nuances of different neighbourhoods can make a significant difference to achieving a successful sale.

Looking ahead, several factors suggest the market conditions may continue to improve gradually. Wage growth is currently outpacing house price increases, which means that affordability is slowly improving for many buyers. This trend is particularly significant for first-time buyers and those looking to take their next step on the property ladder. Additionally, there is growing optimism about potential interest rate cuts following the fall in inflation during October. If the Bank of England does reduce the Base Rate in the coming months, as many analysts anticipate, borrowing could become more accessible and mortgage costs may decrease, further supporting market activity.

The impact of the Autumn Budget on the market presents a more complex picture. Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, described the current situation as a mixed bag, noting that whilst some transactions were rushed through to beat Budget deadlines, the majority of the market had been in a holding pattern. However, he stressed that the fundamentals remain strong, with lifestyle-led moves continuing to drive activity. The Budget's changes to stamp duty thresholds, particularly affecting properties over £2 million, may have limited direct impact on most areas outside the South East, though the ripple effects could influence buyer behaviour across different price brackets.

The Chancellor's decisions have created particular considerations for asset-rich but cash-poor homeowners, who may need to reassess their plans. However, for the majority of movers, the clarity that now exists following the Budget announcement removes a significant barrier to decision-making. This is already being reflected in increased enquiry levels and viewing requests as we move through the final months of the year.

One aspect that industry figures like Nathan Emerson, chief executive at Propertymark, found disappointing was the absence of specific support measures for first-time buyers or assistance for those considering downsizing. In a market where housing stock remains under pressure and demand continues to outstrip supply in many areas, including Rugby, such measures could have helped to improve market fluidity. The ability for people to move more easily to properties that precisely match their needs benefits the entire housing ecosystem, from buyers and sellers to the various trades and services that depend on a healthy property market.

For anyone considering a move in the local area, the current market conditions present both opportunities and considerations. Buyers benefit from increased choice and relatively stable prices, whilst the prospect of improved affordability and potentially lower borrowing costs on the horizon adds to the positive outlook. Sellers can take confidence from transaction levels that demonstrate sustained demand, though realistic pricing and strong presentation remain essential in a market where buyers have options.

The seasonal patterns of the housing market mean that activity traditionally moderates during winter months, though this year may prove different given the pent-up demand from those who delayed plans earlier in the year. The period between now and the spring market could see a more decisive return of movers who had been waiting for greater certainty. History shows that when major policy changes or economic shifts occur, the housing market tends to respond decisively once clarity emerges, and current indicators suggest we may be at the beginning of such a response.

What remains clear is that the market continues to be shaped by real people making significant life decisions rather than speculative investment or short-term manoeuvring. Whether upsizing to accommodate a growing family, downsizing after children have left home, or relocating for work opportunities, these fundamental drivers of housing demand persist regardless of broader economic headlines. For estate agents working closely with their local communities, understanding and responding to these individual circumstances remains at the heart of achieving successful outcomes for both buyers and sellers.

As we move towards 2026, the combination of improved clarity following the Budget, potential interest rate cuts, gradually improving affordability, and sustained levels of needs-based moving suggests cautious optimism is warranted. The market has demonstrated its resilience through a challenging period, and the foundations appear sound for continued, stable activity in the months ahead.